What is the probability of drawing two cards without replacement?

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Two events $A$ and $B$ are independent if & only if $\Pr(A \cap B) = \Pr(A)\Pr(B)$.

You can divide both sides of this equation by $\Pr(A)$, to get $$ \frac{\Pr(A \cap B)}{\Pr(A)} = \Pr(B) $$ Notice now that the term on the left is just the definition of $\Pr(B|A)$. So we'e shown that $A$ and $B$ are independent if & only if $\Pr(B|A) = \Pr(B)$.

Let's take your definitions of $A$ as the event that the 1st card is an Ace, and $B$ as the event that the 2nd card is a Spade. The probability of the 2nd card being a Spade is $\tfrac{12}{51}$ in case the first card was also a Spade, and $\tfrac{13}{51}$ if it was not. So $$ \Pr(B) = \frac{1}{4}\cdot\frac{12}{51} + \frac{3}{4}\cdot\frac{13}{51} = \frac{51}{4\cdot 51} = \frac{1}{4} $$ Let us now consider $\Pr(B|A)$. The probability of the 2nd card being a Spade is again $\tfrac{12}{51}$ in case the first card was the Ace of Spades, and $\tfrac{13}{51}$ if it was one of the other 3 aces. This is the exact same: $\Pr(B|A)=\Pr(B)=\tfrac{1}{4}$, hence the events are indeed independent.

I think the mistake in your reasoning was where you said, "$\Pr(B|A)=\tfrac{12}{51}$ if $A$ is the Ace of Spades, but $\Pr(B|A)=\tfrac{13}{51}$ if $A$ is not the Ace of Spades". The problem with this rationale is that $\Pr(B|A)$ cannot have two different values, and $A$ is an event, not a card. $\Pr(B|A)$ has a single composite value, which is made up from the $\tfrac{12}{51}$ and $\tfrac{13}{51}$ probabilities you mentioned, but weighted by the (respective) $\tfrac{1}{4}$ and $\tfrac{3}{4}$ probabilities of the 1st Ace being the Ace of Spades vs. not (or, of event $A$ being True or False).

As an aside, what if we let $C$ be the event that the 1st card is a Black card? The probability of drawing a Spade, after we have already drawn a Black card, is $\tfrac{12}{51}$ if that Black card was also a Spade, and $\tfrac{13}{51}$ if it was a Club: $$ \Pr(B|C) = \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{12}{51} + \frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{13}{51} = \frac{25}{102} \approx 0.245 \neq 0.25 = \frac{1}{4} = \Pr(B) $$ In this case, $B$ and $C$ are not independent.

EDIT: Sure, even if $C$ is true, we still don't know whether the 1st card was a Spade, or not. But because all Spades are Black (although not the other way around), knowing that the 1st card was already Black, gives us some additional relevant information, about the chance that the 2nd card will be a Spade. In contrast, knowing that the 1st card was an Ace isn't really relevant to the question of whether the 2nd card will be a Spade, because Spades are $\tfrac{1}{4}$ of all Aces, but Spades are also $\tfrac{1}{4}$ of the deck as a whole.

Chris P.

asked • 09/29/13

a. Both are Diamonds.

b. Neither is a Diamond.

c. Both are of the same unit.

d. Both are of the same suit given that the first card drawn is a Club.

e. They are not of the same suit.

f. They are not of the same suit, given that the first card drawn is a Club.

X

1 Expert Answer

Kirill Z. answered • 09/29/13

Physics, math tutor with great knowledge and teaching skills

Since there is no replacement, the probability of the second draw depends on the first outcome. Let me illustrate on the part a.

a. There are 13 diamonds in the deck (just as any other suit). Since there are 52 cards, the probability of getting a diamond in the first draw is 13/52. After the first card is drawn, there are just 12 diamonds left. So, the probability of drawing the diamond now is 12/51 (remember, there is no replacement, so there are just 51 cards left after the first card is drawn!). The total probability is the product of two probabilities: the probability to draw diamond from original deck, which is 13/52 times the probability to draw a diamond from the remaining 51 cards, provided the first card drawing is diamond, which is 12/51.

So, p=13/52*12/51=1/4*4/17=1/17; Answer to a. part is 1/17

Now you shall be able to answer part b. by analogy. I will give just the answer: 19/34. Let us consider part c now.

There are 13 units in the deck, with 4 cards of the same unit per each unit. So, drawing a given unit has a probability of 4/52=1/13. Once a card of a certain unit is drawn, there are just 3 cards of the same unit left, so the probability of drawing the second of the same unit is 3/51=1/17. The product of two probabilities is the total probability to draw two cards of the same given unit, that is 1/(13*17)=1/221. Since there are 13 units, this needs to be multiplied by the number of units, that is 13. Thus the answer is 1/221*13=1/17.

Now to part d. If the first card is Club, then there are 12 Clubs left and overall 51 cards left. Probability to draw a Club second time is 12/51=4/17

Part e. Let us consider the probability that they are of the same suit. In part a. we determined the probability to have two diamonds. It is 1/17. So is the probability to get two cards of any other suit. Thus the total probability to get two cards of the same suit is 4*1/17=4/17. The probability that two cards are not of the same suit is just 1-4/17=13/17. Answer: 13/17

Part f. If the first card is a Club, then the second MUST be NOT Club. There are 12 Clubs left and total 51 cards left. Thus there are 51-12=39 cards, that are NOT Clubs, left. Thus the probability to draw the second card, which is not a Club, is 39/51=13/17. Answer: 13/17

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